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EU5: Commercial assessment of licensed products for the five major EU markets

Topic: Product- und portfolio evaluation, commercial due diligience
Client: Medium-sized pharmaceutical company based in Germany
Active ingredient: Psychiatric medication

Challenge

Our client had received an offer for a marketing license for a Phase III product for the 5 major EU markets. The product fitted perfectly into the portfolio; however the indication was characterized with a high proportion of generics creating a strong price pressure.

Two approval scenarios existed for the product: a wide range of indications with minimal differentiation or a subpopulation with high medical needs.

As experts in market access, SKC was assigned to assess the reimbursement level and the anticpated market penetrations independently for both scenarios in the EU5.

Solutions and approach

Specific factors of influence affecting the market penetration of new drugs were summarized for each country and evaluated in terms of their significance and impact for both indications.

These factors were then applied as forces on the standard functions for the market penetration of new drugs. On this foundation the curve was adjusted in its maximum height and its angle of inclination. 

The revenues for the years 1 to 5 were calculated based on the years of treatment and the pricing.

The review was presented to the client as a comprehensive power point documentation, structured according to the countries and label scenarios with an executive summary, the excel models and the sources used. Open questions were clarified in a results workshop with the management and subsequently amended in the documentation.

Added value

The client was able to precisely determine his negotiation position on the basis of the results, regarding the maximum price and the evaluation of the two approval scenarios.

As a result, the client was able to negotiate the value of the offer in an informative, factual and comprehensive manner regardless of the licensors' very optimistic market models.

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